Who needs a Champions Trophy?

A week after IPL, dinner time TV viewing has gotten so boring! Thankfully IPL ended the way I wanted - MI winning (I chose not to blog out my thoughts before the finals , purely on account of superstitious reasons!) a really tense encounter. It in some ways summed up what the excitement of the IPL is all about.
If IPL is meant to bring in viewers because of the sheer excitement is provides, what is the Champions Trophy supposed to do? It is a, once in 4 years, 50 overs a side tournament in some sort of a knockout format! 2 groups of 4 teams each, the top 2 from each group make it to the finals. It gets over in 18 days (unlike the World Cup which lasts more than a month) and so is supposed to be exciting!
Really? The excitement is all for the ICC - which is out in the counting house, counting all its money. Not sure in this era of T20 cricket, who would want to spend a whole day watching a game!
Yes, the games may end up in tight finishes (more likely high-scoring tight finishes; net result being that this tournament will set a record for the highest no. of runs scored in a tournament etc.). Yes, TV revenues will be high (the game timings very clearly cater to the Indian TV audience, with provision for Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan audiences). Yes, the ICC will pat itself on the back for having conducted another tournament successfully!
But, what is the fun in having a tournament where only 8 teams compete! That too in a format that takes the whole day to play! If cricket should expand, there should be more teams playing T20 internationals so that the game catches on. Test matches can always exist to cater to the purists (and to allow us folks the treat of watching a Cheteshwar Pujara, Umesh Yadav etc. play some great and menacing cricket). A Champions trophy is only a money making idea, nothing else.
Anyway, enough of my ranting (I don't see the point of one-day internationals anyway). For this CT, here's hoping England or SA win! Why not India? Well, not that I love India less; it's just that I love cricket more :)

Sigh! MI lost the first qualifier :(

So much for my predicting the path for MI to win! They lost to Pune, thereby keeping their record of losing to Pune every time this year, intact. If I had to pick reasons for the loss,  can think of just 3 :
1. Last 2 overs - those cost MI 41 runs. Considering that Mumbai lost by 20 runs finally, this was too much (those 41 runs were 25% of Pune's final sore - in 10% of the overs they faced!).
2. Rohit Sharma's not out - It was a bat-pad decision, so it might have been difficult to judge! But that LBW set the dominoes in motion. Had Rohit held steady for another 5 overs, the story might have been different.
3. No dew - Chasing under lights when there is dew, is supposed to be easy. Difficult to grip the ball for bowlers - tougher to hold on for fielders! But yesterday's match, there was no dew. So, the whole advantage of chasing was negated.

It will be interesting to see if dew plays a role in Bangalore today. In any case , I am hoping SRH reach the finals in Hyd and beat Pune.

VIVO IPL 2017 - lets make some predictions :)

The IPL 2017 season is drawing to a close. Just 4 matches left, including the finals. Being a loyal IPL fan (as most of us are), I am dying to find out who will win. The heart says Mumbai Indians, but what does the head say?
So, I thought of using match data for this year (2017) and only this year to try and see if I could draw some patterns/ trends (not sure how to attach my working excel sheet to this post, but I will try attaching it later). And yes, am trying to build a scenario where MI wins!

1. Teams chasing have won more matches (no surprise there) except when they have had to chase a score of 200+ (again no surprise there)! Out of 8 200+ chases, only once has the chasing team won. Out of 47 sub 200 scores, the team batting first has won only 17 times!
2. If the score being chased is >150 but less than 200, almost always it is the chasing team that has won. However when chasing a 100-150 range score, the chances of the team batting first winning are nearly even!
3. Among the top 4, SRH has won more matches batting first (they also have the most 200+scores - 3 in all as compared to 6 by all others put together).
4. Out of the locations where the next matches will be held, Bangalore and Mumbai are a little more balanced - nearly equal chances of winning when batting first or chasing. Hyderabad is lopsided - out of 7 matches there, 5 have been won by the team batting first!
5. Pune Super Giants (using PSG rather than RPS - Rising Pune Supergiants) is the only team to have beaten Mumbai twice this season.

Based on all the above, this is what I see as a scenario for Mumbai to win.
1. Qualifier 1 in Mumbai. MI vs PSG : If Mumbai bats first, they should score > 200. Safe chance of winning. Alternatively, score between 100-150 (assuming the pitch is bowler friendly). But this being Wankhede and the pitch being batsman friendly and dew being a factor when chasing, the best approach for Mumbai is to chase (and hope that PSG do not make more than 200). The absence of Stokes means that Pune is on the backfoot.
2. Eliminator 1 in Bangalore : KKR vs SRH: refer point 4 above. There is no huge skew towards batting first or chasing. However, of late the Bangalore wicket has become difficult to score on. Given this fact, chasing is a good option for either KKR or SRH. Considering that chasing has been KKRs strength generally this year, it will make sense for them to chase and knock SRH out of the equation.
3. Eliminator 2 (or is it Qualifier 2) in Bangalore: Loser of MI vs PSG match plays winner of KKR vs SRH match. Assuming KKR wins the first eliminator, it will be KKR versus PSG. Again, in the absence of Stokes, KKR has better chances of winning this one chasing.
4. The Finals- in Hyderabad: If it is MI versus KKR in Hyd, I am betting on MI winning; whether it is chasing or batting first. Though chances are that whichever team chases will win this one (for a sub 200 score being chased, that is).

Phew! To simplify, if MI has to win, they should preferably chase in Qualifier 1 and win; hope that SRH doesn't reach the finals. Then, MI should again chase a sub-200 score in the finals and win!