The IPL 2017 season is drawing to a close. Just 4 matches left, including the finals. Being a loyal IPL fan (as most of us are), I am dying to find out who will win. The heart says Mumbai Indians, but what does the head say?
So, I thought of using match data for this year (2017) and only this year to try and see if I could draw some patterns/ trends (not sure how to attach my working excel sheet to this post, but I will try attaching it later). And yes, am trying to build a scenario where MI wins!
1. Teams chasing have won more matches (no surprise there) except when they have had to chase a score of 200+ (again no surprise there)! Out of 8 200+ chases, only once has the chasing team won. Out of 47 sub 200 scores, the team batting first has won only 17 times!
2. If the score being chased is >150 but less than 200, almost always it is the chasing team that has won. However when chasing a 100-150 range score, the chances of the team batting first winning are nearly even!
3. Among the top 4, SRH has won more matches batting first (they also have the most 200+scores - 3 in all as compared to 6 by all others put together).
4. Out of the locations where the next matches will be held, Bangalore and Mumbai are a little more balanced - nearly equal chances of winning when batting first or chasing. Hyderabad is lopsided - out of 7 matches there, 5 have been won by the team batting first!
5. Pune Super Giants (using PSG rather than RPS - Rising Pune Supergiants) is the only team to have beaten Mumbai twice this season.
Based on all the above, this is what I see as a scenario for Mumbai to win.
1. Qualifier 1 in Mumbai. MI vs PSG : If Mumbai bats first, they should score > 200. Safe chance of winning. Alternatively, score between 100-150 (assuming the pitch is bowler friendly). But this being Wankhede and the pitch being batsman friendly and dew being a factor when chasing, the best approach for Mumbai is to chase (and hope that PSG do not make more than 200). The absence of Stokes means that Pune is on the backfoot.
2. Eliminator 1 in Bangalore : KKR vs SRH: refer point 4 above. There is no huge skew towards batting first or chasing. However, of late the Bangalore wicket has become difficult to score on. Given this fact, chasing is a good option for either KKR or SRH. Considering that chasing has been KKRs strength generally this year, it will make sense for them to chase and knock SRH out of the equation.
3. Eliminator 2 (or is it Qualifier 2) in Bangalore: Loser of MI vs PSG match plays winner of KKR vs SRH match. Assuming KKR wins the first eliminator, it will be KKR versus PSG. Again, in the absence of Stokes, KKR has better chances of winning this one chasing.
4. The Finals- in Hyderabad: If it is MI versus KKR in Hyd, I am betting on MI winning; whether it is chasing or batting first. Though chances are that whichever team chases will win this one (for a sub 200 score being chased, that is).
Phew! To simplify, if MI has to win, they should preferably chase in Qualifier 1 and win; hope that SRH doesn't reach the finals. Then, MI should again chase a sub-200 score in the finals and win!
So, I thought of using match data for this year (2017) and only this year to try and see if I could draw some patterns/ trends (not sure how to attach my working excel sheet to this post, but I will try attaching it later). And yes, am trying to build a scenario where MI wins!
1. Teams chasing have won more matches (no surprise there) except when they have had to chase a score of 200+ (again no surprise there)! Out of 8 200+ chases, only once has the chasing team won. Out of 47 sub 200 scores, the team batting first has won only 17 times!
2. If the score being chased is >150 but less than 200, almost always it is the chasing team that has won. However when chasing a 100-150 range score, the chances of the team batting first winning are nearly even!
3. Among the top 4, SRH has won more matches batting first (they also have the most 200+scores - 3 in all as compared to 6 by all others put together).
4. Out of the locations where the next matches will be held, Bangalore and Mumbai are a little more balanced - nearly equal chances of winning when batting first or chasing. Hyderabad is lopsided - out of 7 matches there, 5 have been won by the team batting first!
5. Pune Super Giants (using PSG rather than RPS - Rising Pune Supergiants) is the only team to have beaten Mumbai twice this season.
Based on all the above, this is what I see as a scenario for Mumbai to win.
1. Qualifier 1 in Mumbai. MI vs PSG : If Mumbai bats first, they should score > 200. Safe chance of winning. Alternatively, score between 100-150 (assuming the pitch is bowler friendly). But this being Wankhede and the pitch being batsman friendly and dew being a factor when chasing, the best approach for Mumbai is to chase (and hope that PSG do not make more than 200). The absence of Stokes means that Pune is on the backfoot.
2. Eliminator 1 in Bangalore : KKR vs SRH: refer point 4 above. There is no huge skew towards batting first or chasing. However, of late the Bangalore wicket has become difficult to score on. Given this fact, chasing is a good option for either KKR or SRH. Considering that chasing has been KKRs strength generally this year, it will make sense for them to chase and knock SRH out of the equation.
3. Eliminator 2 (or is it Qualifier 2) in Bangalore: Loser of MI vs PSG match plays winner of KKR vs SRH match. Assuming KKR wins the first eliminator, it will be KKR versus PSG. Again, in the absence of Stokes, KKR has better chances of winning this one chasing.
4. The Finals- in Hyderabad: If it is MI versus KKR in Hyd, I am betting on MI winning; whether it is chasing or batting first. Though chances are that whichever team chases will win this one (for a sub 200 score being chased, that is).
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